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CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - JANUARY 11: Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks looks over the ... [+]
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For the past two decades, in part due to panicked trades, desperation signings, and internal drama, the New York Knicks have been the laughingstock of the NBA. Knicks fans have literally hidden their faces in paper bags out of shame.
Those days, however, may be over.
A steady hand and a stellar outlook
During the 2020 NBA offseason, the Knicks broke protocol. They positioned themselves to have two picks in the first round of the draft, selecting Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley, which indicates a long-term view they not normally would have embraced.
During free agency, the organization mostly laid low when it came to major changes. Instead of overhauling their roster, the Knicks signed Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Austin Rivers to very modest contracts, all of which can come off the books by 2021.
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Burks and Noel are on one-year deals totaling $11 million. Rivers was signed to a three-year contract worth $10 million, but the two final years of his deal are fully non-guaranteed, meaning the Knicks can waive him if they so choose without owing him anything.
While the 2021 free agency class will be much more diminished than originally believed, due to rookie extensions and NBA All-Star players signing long-term contracts, the Knicks will still enter the offseason with a lot of flexibility.
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Not only will they have very little money on their books - an early estimate has the Knicks set up with around $70 million in cap space - but they will also have two first-round draft picks once again.
Outside of having their own, the Knicks will get the pick originally owned by the Dallas Mavericks from the Kristaps Porzingis trade. While that pick may not land particularly high up the board, that needn't matter much.
The success of Quickley, who is putting up 10.7 points per game as the 25th overall selection in 2020, is a sign that you can find talent everywhere in the first round.
The Mitchell Robinson decision
While the Knicks may be projected to have upwards of $70 million in cap space, there is a decision to be made, which could drastically impact the future of center Mitchell Robinson.
Robinson, currently the Knicks' starting center, was drafted in the second round back in 2018 and is now in his third NBA season. He is under contract for the 2021/2022 season as well at a very cheap $1.8 million, although the Knicks won't enjoy such a contractual steal unless they wish to risk losing Robinson in 2022 as an unrestricted free agent.
Second-round draftees are eligible to become unrestricted free agents after four years. This means the Knicks, who have a team option on Robinson for next year, will have to decline that and have him hit the market a year earlier - specifically 2021 - in order to retain restricted free agency status on him, so they can match offer sheets from other teams.
While Robinson has not broken out as a star, he's a versatile shot-blocker, rebounder, and rim-runner who at 22 years old has a lot of potential left in his tank. Numerous teams would jump all over Robinson if he were unrestricted, potentially resulting in the Knicks losing him without compensation.
As such, the Knicks will have some decisions to make.
They could risk losing Robinson for nothing, and activate that 2021/2022 team option. That means they will have to pay Robinson just $1.8 million during his fourth NBA season.
They could decline their team option on him after this season and sign him to a long-term contract. This would mirror the exact course of events the Denver Nuggets went through with Nikola Jokic.
Finally, they could trade Robinson before the March 25 Trade Deadline this season and avoid having to deal with his contract situation.
The downside of trading the center now is of course his value or lack thereof. Teams are well aware of Robinson's contractual situation and know they will have to significantly invest in his future later this year, making him less attractive on the trade market.
It would seem logical that the Knicks go the route of declining their team option, and re-sign him during free agency, taking a big bite out of their available cap space.
What to do with Julius Randle?
Setting aside New York's decision on Robinson, there's also the matter of what their plans are regarding their best player, Julius Randle. The 26-year-old is having a career-year, posting 22.5 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game.
Those numbers are absurdly good, and that type of production is usually not something that any team should be interested in moving off from.
That said, Randle can become an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The Knicks could risk losing him for nothing in roughly 18 months, which would be a substantial loss of talent.
However, given that they would have had four first-round picks over a two-year period, while also developing Robinson and 2019 draftee R.J. Barrett, it's fair to wonder if the team's new-look patience opens the door to a Randle trade where the return, presumably, would be young players or maybe draft pick compensation.
Regardless, the Knicks can't really go wrong here.
Hanging onto talent, if that's their choice, is never a bad play for the short-term. Randle's production, theoretically, also lessens the burden on what the youngsters are expected to do.
If Randle is lost in 2022, the Knicks would have to hope their youth movement has reached a point where they can become reliable contributors.
If they move him to get younger, they could find themselves as one of the most intriguing young teams in the league.
Going into the 2021 offseason, the Knicks appear to be in control. They have attractive pieces on their roster. They have cap space they can spend in a variety of ways, including taking on bad money in compensation of young players or draft picks. They have trade possibilities.
It's all lined up for them to make use of those situations and use the market to their advantage.
Ultimately, this all boils down to making sound decisions built on a logical approach. The Knicks, it appears, are finally looking at the long-term picture instead of attempting a 24-hour turnaround.
That patience is likely to pay off, at least compared to how they usually do business.
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